* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST AL902007 05/09/07 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 45 45 46 49 53 56 58 60 59 55 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 45 45 46 39 37 30 36 37 36 33 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 44 44 45 46 38 32 32 42 48 51 50 SHEAR (KTS) 19 27 23 13 15 15 14 12 17 21 43 47 52 SHEAR DIR 280 298 305 302 291 332 324 322 297 282 257 252 244 SST (C) 24.3 23.9 23.3 22.8 22.2 21.4 20.9 21.2 21.2 20.8 21.8 20.4 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 91 87 85 81 79 81 82 83 89 84 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 81 78 76 74 71 70 72 73 75 81 78 76 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.9 -56.4 -56.7 -56.9 -57.9 -58.8 -59.3 -58.7 -57.7 -56.3 -55.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 3 6 6 4 7 3 7 2 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 34 37 36 35 37 42 45 47 50 47 39 37 34 850 MB VORT 81 55 54 46 39 20 36 28 14 6 21 40 88 200 MB DIV -7 -2 2 20 16 -3 -5 0 -24 -8 -8 -6 24 LAND (KM) 278 230 182 143 105 28 -27 0 -9 70 397 688 843 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.0 31.3 31.6 31.9 32.6 33.2 33.7 34.3 34.9 35.6 36.3 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.7 79.1 79.3 79.5 79.7 79.7 79.0 77.8 75.4 71.5 66.5 60.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 4 3 3 5 8 13 19 22 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=642) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=67.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 25. 31. 36. 39. 40. 40. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 14. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 10. INVEST 5/09/07 00 UTC ** 2006 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * EXPERIMENTAL SECTION * * 0-500 KM SHEAR + GFS VORTEX INPUT * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST AL902007 05/09/07 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 D-SHIP OPER 45 44 44 45 45 46 39 37 30 36 37 36 33 D-SHIP EXPER 45 44 43 42 40 37 31 32 28 30 29 25 20 SHEAR OPER 19 27 23 13 15 15 14 12 17 21 43 47 52 SHEAR EXPER 12 22 25 26 22 30 27 27 32 34 39 50 61 GFS VORTEX (KT) 21 19 18 16 13 10 8 7 3 2 LOST LOST LOST NOTE: THE GFS VORTEX IS THE 0 TO 500 KM RADIALLY AVERAGED TANGENTIAL WIND AT 850 MB. THE OPERATIONAL SHEAR IS THE 200 to 800 KM AVG. THE EXPERIMENTAL SHEAR IS THE 0 to 500 KM AVG. * * * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX * * INVEST AL902007 05/09/2007 00 UTC * * * SCREENING STORM INTENSITY = 45.0 kt > 84 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 24.3 C > 25.4 C ? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 24.3 C < 28.6 C ? ---> PASSED SCREENING VERT. SHR = 19.1 kt < 24.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING INTEGRATED VERT. SHR = 20.1 kt < 31.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 12.5 kt > -15.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 12.5 kt < 18.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = 0.0 m/s-day > -4.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = 0.0 m/s-day < 8.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES RAD COLD BR TEMP = 218.0 km > 50.0 km? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES EYE-RING BR TEMP = 31.8 C > 0.0 C ? ---> PASSED STORM NOT ANNULAR, FAILED SCREENING ***************************************************** * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) VALUE = 0. * * (AHI=100. IS BEST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 1. IS WORST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 0. FOR NO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * *****************************************************