* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST AL902007 05/09/07 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 51 53 58 59 61 61 60 57 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 51 53 47 52 53 54 53 50 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 47 49 51 45 52 55 58 57 54 SHEAR (KTS) 29 22 17 17 18 13 13 12 21 30 44 47 42 SHEAR DIR 291 306 287 285 313 304 340 301 289 259 259 245 234 SST (C) 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.1 22.8 22.2 21.8 21.4 20.3 21.8 20.9 20.2 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 95 92 91 89 88 85 83 82 80 88 86 84 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 79 78 77 76 74 73 73 73 80 79 78 75 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.4 -57.0 -57.2 -57.5 -58.4 -59.2 -59.1 -58.1 -57.4 -56.3 -55.0 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 6 7 5 7 4 7 4 2 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 35 34 36 33 37 40 48 51 44 47 46 41 35 850 MB VORT 51 56 42 39 32 29 25 25 1 3 17 68 108 200 MB DIV 17 -3 18 22 0 2 -5 0 -18 6 -2 20 22 LAND (KM) 249 220 191 160 129 64 46 -8 21 262 608 704 846 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.9 32.6 33.3 34.2 34.8 35.5 36.4 37.5 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 78.8 78.9 79.0 79.0 79.0 78.7 77.9 76.2 73.0 68.2 62.8 56.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 11 17 21 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 679 (MEAN=642) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=67.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 39. 40. 41. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 14. 16. 16. 15. 12. INVEST 5/09/07 06 UTC ** 2006 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * EXPERIMENTAL SECTION * * 0-500 KM SHEAR + GFS VORTEX INPUT * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST AL902007 05/09/07 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 D-SHIP OPER 45 45 46 47 48 51 53 47 52 53 54 53 50 D-SHIP EXPER 45 45 45 43 43 41 38 33 35 32 30 25 20 SHEAR OPER 29 22 17 17 18 13 13 12 21 30 44 47 42 SHEAR EXPER 23 26 26 22 32 24 27 31 35 31 44 56 51 GFS VORTEX (KT) 20 18 17 13 12 10 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 NOTE: THE GFS VORTEX IS THE 0 TO 500 KM RADIALLY AVERAGED TANGENTIAL WIND AT 850 MB. THE OPERATIONAL SHEAR IS THE 200 to 800 KM AVG. THE EXPERIMENTAL SHEAR IS THE 0 to 500 KM AVG. * * * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX * * INVEST AL902007 05/09/2007 06 UTC * * * SCREENING STORM INTENSITY = 45.0 kt > 84 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 24.0 C > 25.4 C ? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 24.0 C < 28.6 C ? ---> PASSED SCREENING VERT. SHR = 28.8 kt < 24.0 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING INTEGRATED VERT. SHR = 31.5 kt < 31.0 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 19.2 kt > -15.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 19.2 kt < 18.0 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = -0.3 m/s-day > -4.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = -0.3 m/s-day < 8.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES RAD COLD BR TEMP = 162.0 km > 50.0 km? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES EYE-RING BR TEMP = 37.0 C > 0.0 C ? ---> PASSED STORM NOT ANNULAR, FAILED SCREENING ***************************************************** * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) VALUE = 0. * * (AHI=100. IS BEST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 1. IS WORST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 0. FOR NO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * *****************************************************