* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ANDREA AL012007 05/09/07 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 38 38 39 41 46 49 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 38 38 39 41 46 48 52 54 56 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 36 36 36 38 41 44 48 53 56 55 53 SHEAR (KTS) 24 13 19 18 13 13 10 13 17 33 41 51 41 SHEAR DIR 304 280 279 318 320 311 324 296 286 259 261 248 250 SST (C) 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.3 21.9 21.4 21.3 21.4 21.9 20.7 19.6 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 92 91 89 87 85 83 81 81 84 88 85 83 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 78 77 76 74 72 71 72 75 80 79 78 76 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -57.1 -57.8 -58.6 -58.7 -58.2 -57.6 -57.5 -57.1 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 8 5 5 8 4 8 4 4 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 33 31 32 33 38 38 46 49 48 43 50 40 51 850 MB VORT 50 47 35 21 18 19 14 28 18 29 44 71 104 200 MB DIV 0 5 18 3 -16 -10 -3 -10 -10 16 17 23 19 LAND (KM) 219 201 180 148 114 67 8 5 18 133 525 872 1016 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.5 31.8 32.3 33.0 33.6 34.2 34.5 34.8 35.4 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.5 79.5 79.4 79.0 77.5 74.9 70.2 64.4 57.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 9 15 22 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 680 (MEAN=642) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=67.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -17. -16. -17. -16. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 38. 40. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 6. 9. 14. 17. 18. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. ANDREA 5/09/07 12 UTC ** 2006 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * EXPERIMENTAL SECTION * * 0-500 KM SHEAR + GFS VORTEX INPUT * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ANDREA AL012007 05/09/07 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 D-SHIP OPER 40 38 38 38 38 39 41 46 48 52 54 56 57 D-SHIP EXPER 40 38 36 35 34 30 30 30 30 31 32 29 26 SHEAR OPER 24 13 19 18 13 13 10 13 17 33 41 51 41 SHEAR EXPER 25 20 28 31 23 23 21 25 27 38 32 50 51 GFS VORTEX (KT) 18 16 14 12 12 8 7 6 4 4 4 2 LOST NOTE: THE GFS VORTEX IS THE 0 TO 500 KM RADIALLY AVERAGED TANGENTIAL WIND AT 850 MB. THE OPERATIONAL SHEAR IS THE 200 to 800 KM AVG. THE EXPERIMENTAL SHEAR IS THE 0 to 500 KM AVG. * * * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX * * ANDREA AL012007 05/09/2007 12 UTC * * * SCREENING STORM INTENSITY = 40.0 kt > 84 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 23.7 C > 25.4 C ? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 23.7 C < 28.6 C ? ---> PASSED SCREENING VERT. SHR = 24.1 kt < 24.0 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING INTEGRATED VERT. SHR = 26.0 kt < 31.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 16.6 kt > -15.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 16.6 kt < 18.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = -0.9 m/s-day > -4.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = -0.9 m/s-day < 8.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES RAD COLD BR TEMP = 146.0 km > 50.0 km? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES EYE-RING BR TEMP = 35.2 C > 0.0 C ? ---> PASSED STORM NOT ANNULAR, FAILED SCREENING ***************************************************** * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) VALUE = 0. * * (AHI=100. IS BEST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 1. IS WORST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 0. FOR NO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * *****************************************************