* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST AL902007 05/09/07 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 44 45 47 51 53 55 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 44 45 47 51 53 55 57 57 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 43 44 45 47 50 54 58 59 57 53 SHEAR (KTS) 25 14 21 18 13 14 10 13 17 34 41 52 42 SHEAR DIR 301 273 279 313 308 310 324 294 286 259 259 248 249 SST (C) 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.2 21.7 21.6 22.0 22.1 20.4 19.4 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 93 91 90 88 87 84 83 82 86 89 84 82 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 78 77 76 75 73 73 72 76 81 79 78 76 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.2 -56.3 -56.7 -56.9 -57.7 -58.4 -58.6 -58.2 -57.6 -57.5 -57.0 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 5 5 8 5 8 4 4 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 32 31 31 31 36 38 45 50 48 44 51 41 51 850 MB VORT 50 48 36 20 21 18 10 27 18 28 41 65 101 200 MB DIV 0 4 18 3 -17 -13 -5 -12 -12 16 18 24 18 LAND (KM) 219 210 192 176 158 105 38 33 35 149 523 905 1036 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.2 31.4 31.9 32.7 33.4 33.8 34.3 34.5 35.1 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.4 79.5 79.3 78.8 77.7 74.9 70.3 64.3 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 9 15 22 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 685 (MEAN=642) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=67.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 12. 13. 13. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. INVEST 5/09/07 12 UTC ** 2006 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * EXPERIMENTAL SECTION * * 0-500 KM SHEAR + GFS VORTEX INPUT * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST AL902007 05/09/07 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 D-SHIP OPER 45 44 44 44 44 45 47 51 53 55 57 57 57 D-SHIP EXPER 45 44 42 40 39 36 35 34 33 34 34 30 27 SHEAR OPER 25 14 21 18 13 14 10 13 17 34 41 52 42 SHEAR EXPER 25 20 28 30 22 23 21 25 25 35 31 49 49 GFS VORTEX (KT) 18 16 14 12 12 8 7 6 4 4 4 2 LOST NOTE: THE GFS VORTEX IS THE 0 TO 500 KM RADIALLY AVERAGED TANGENTIAL WIND AT 850 MB. THE OPERATIONAL SHEAR IS THE 200 to 800 KM AVG. THE EXPERIMENTAL SHEAR IS THE 0 to 500 KM AVG. * * * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX * * INVEST AL902007 05/09/2007 12 UTC * * * SCREENING STORM INTENSITY = 45.0 kt > 84 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 23.9 C > 25.4 C ? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 23.9 C < 28.6 C ? ---> PASSED SCREENING VERT. SHR = 24.6 kt < 24.0 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING INTEGRATED VERT. SHR = 27.3 kt < 31.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 18.3 kt > -15.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 18.3 kt < 18.0 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = -0.8 m/s-day > -4.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = -0.8 m/s-day < 8.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES RAD COLD BR TEMP = 130.0 km > 50.0 km? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES EYE-RING BR TEMP = 51.5 C > 0.0 C ? ---> PASSED STORM NOT ANNULAR, FAILED SCREENING ***************************************************** * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) VALUE = 0. * * (AHI=100. IS BEST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 1. IS WORST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 0. FOR NO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * *****************************************************