* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ANDREA AL012007 05/09/07 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 34 33 33 34 37 40 42 46 47 46 V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 34 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 35 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 20 25 25 19 18 15 16 20 22 31 27 37 34 SHEAR DIR 294 297 305 317 296 285 263 260 257 269 271 274 277 SST (C) 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 88 88 87 87 87 87 88 88 86 87 88 89 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 76 76 76 76 75 75 75 73 74 75 76 76 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.6 -57.1 -57.3 -57.5 -58.0 -58.2 -58.2 -57.9 -57.7 -57.2 -57.5 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 5 7 7 9 8 10 8 8 4 5 500-300 MB RH 28 30 31 36 37 34 43 48 52 48 38 32 31 850 MB VORT 37 26 1 0 6 -6 15 32 38 43 38 -20 -55 200 MB DIV 7 3 -16 -41 -27 -9 1 5 22 -2 -9 -19 -4 LAND (KM) 135 102 66 34 1 -24 -17 -20 -30 -30 -17 6 53 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.7 30.5 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.4 80.7 81.0 81.3 81.5 81.4 81.4 81.5 81.5 81.4 81.2 80.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 815 (MEAN=642) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=67.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. 0. 2. 5. 7. 7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. 0. 2. 6. 7. 6. ANDREA 5/09/07 18 UTC ** 2006 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * EXPERIMENTAL SECTION * * 0-500 KM SHEAR + GFS VORTEX INPUT * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * ANDREA AL012007 05/09/07 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 D-SHIP OPER 40 37 35 34 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 30 29 D-SHIP EXPER 40 37 34 32 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 27 SHEAR OPER 20 25 25 19 18 15 16 20 22 31 27 37 34 SHEAR EXPER 25 28 32 24 17 9 9 14 9 17 20 34 32 GFS VORTEX (KT) 17 14 13 12 11 8 6 5 4 4 7 6 5 NOTE: THE GFS VORTEX IS THE 0 TO 500 KM RADIALLY AVERAGED TANGENTIAL WIND AT 850 MB. THE OPERATIONAL SHEAR IS THE 200 to 800 KM AVG. THE EXPERIMENTAL SHEAR IS THE 0 to 500 KM AVG. * * * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX * * ANDREA AL012007 05/09/2007 18 UTC * * * SCREENING STORM INTENSITY = 40.0 kt > 84 kt? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 22.8 C > 25.4 C ? ---> FAILED SCREENING SST = 22.8 C < 28.6 C ? ---> PASSED SCREENING VERT. SHR = 20.2 kt < 24.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING INTEGRATED VERT. SHR = 24.2 kt < 31.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 17.5 kt > -15.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa ZONAL WIND = 17.5 kt < 18.0 kt? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = -2.2 m/s-day > -4.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING 200 hPa MOM FLUX CONV = -2.2 m/s-day < 8.5 m/s-day? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES RAD COLD BR TEMP = 166.0 km > 50.0 km? ---> PASSED SCREENING GOES EYE-RING BR TEMP = 29.2 C > 0.0 C ? ---> PASSED STORM NOT ANNULAR, FAILED SCREENING ***************************************************** * ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) VALUE = 0. * * (AHI=100. IS BEST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 1. IS WORST MATCH TO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * * (AHI= 0. FOR NO ANNULAR STRUCTURE) * *****************************************************