* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* ANDREA AL012007 05/10/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 34 33 32 33 37 39 42 39 34
V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 34 33 32 33 37 39 42 39 34
V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 37 37 38 41 44 48 52 54 52 47
SHEAR (KTS) 32 34 24 19 23 18 21 17 16 14 22 36 35
SHEAR DIR 311 325 335 308 297 282 254 264 235 265 280 278 273
SST (C) 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.6 24.3 24.0 23.7 23.2 23.1
POT. INT. (KT) 90 91 91 92 94 95 97 97 95 94 93 90 90
ADJ. POT. INT. 78 78 78 79 80 81 81 81 81 81 80 79 78
200 MB T (C) -56.6 -57.2 -57.2 -57.4 -57.2 -57.5 -57.2 -57.3 -57.1 -57.0 -57.0 -57.5 -58.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 7 8 6 8 7 9 7 6 1 2
700-500 MB RH 31 31 31 36 37 43 46 48 51 53 47 32 29
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 12 11 9 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 33 16 12 20 0 -18 6 23 59 44 37 -49 -122
200 MB DIV 20 -22 -31 -14 -32 -27 -4 7 22 -1 6 -14 -16
LAND (KM) 162 144 126 116 106 86 84 84 86 106 147 175 143
LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.8 30.3 31.0 31.9
LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.9 80.0 80.1 80.1 80.2 80.1 80.1 80.2 80.1 79.8 79.5 78.7
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -3. 0. 3. 0. -2.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -3. -1. 2. -1. -6.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/10/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/10/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY