* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ANDREA AL012007 05/10/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 32 33 34 36 40 43 43 40 34 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 32 33 34 36 40 43 43 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 33 34 36 40 44 48 52 53 50 45 SHEAR (KTS) 34 23 18 21 19 15 14 18 16 14 36 33 33 SHEAR DIR 323 331 317 291 302 238 259 235 240 303 269 272 280 SST (C) 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 90 90 91 93 94 93 93 93 94 93 93 92 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 77 78 80 80 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 78 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.3 -57.4 -57.2 -57.6 -58.0 -57.7 -57.4 -56.9 -56.7 -56.8 -57.1 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 8 6 9 7 9 7 8 3 4 2 700-500 MB RH 31 32 34 37 37 41 48 56 60 48 37 29 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 20 -1 -15 1 15 19 42 60 21 -33 -110 200 MB DIV -6 -37 -8 -23 -19 13 -1 32 11 -1 -21 -25 -11 LAND (KM) 141 134 126 106 85 58 82 82 58 48 63 84 143 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 79.9 80.0 80.0 80.2 80.3 80.5 80.3 80.3 80.5 80.6 80.5 80.4 79.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 0 1 1 1 0 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 9. 6. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 5. 8. 8. 5. -1. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/10/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/10/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY