* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ANDREA AL012007 05/10/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 26 27 30 34 38 41 40 37 31 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 26 27 30 34 38 41 40 37 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 26 26 29 32 36 41 45 45 42 37 SHEAR (KTS) 22 20 21 18 17 18 8 16 11 31 41 42 35 SHEAR DIR 331 314 301 306 285 256 250 235 273 263 272 273 284 SST (C) 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 93 94 95 95 95 97 97 98 99 98 98 96 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 80 80 80 80 82 82 83 83 83 83 83 82 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.5 -57.3 -57.3 -57.4 -57.4 -57.3 -56.7 -56.8 -57.1 -57.0 -57.1 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 6 6 9 7 9 7 6 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 35 37 36 38 41 41 49 55 57 46 33 34 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 20 1 -1 7 -2 -7 22 29 32 -46 -92 -113 200 MB DIV -33 -17 -11 -9 -17 -31 18 13 8 12 -15 -15 -2 LAND (KM) 143 132 122 115 107 106 102 103 112 146 195 242 244 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.7 30.3 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.8 79.9 79.9 80.0 80.0 79.9 79.8 79.7 79.6 79.4 79.1 78.8 78.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. 1. 4. 9. 12. 10. 8. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 4. 8. 11. 10. 7. 1. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/10/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/10/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY