* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ANDREA AL012007 05/10/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 32 34 37 43 48 46 43 41 38 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 32 34 37 43 48 46 43 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 30 31 34 39 44 49 51 47 42 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 15 15 12 14 15 16 23 52 38 27 N/A SHEAR DIR 310 289 295 285 263 263 226 265 259 261 278 278 N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.4 24.1 23.6 22.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 96 98 98 99 99 99 98 98 97 94 89 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 82 83 83 83 84 84 83 84 83 82 78 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.3 -57.5 -57.3 -56.9 -57.5 -57.6 -57.6 -57.6 -57.6 -58.8 -59.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 9 8 9 8 6 1 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 37 35 32 40 52 53 40 26 25 29 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 16 18 9 -3 2 0 41 49 -34 -109 -159 N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -10 -12 -21 -20 3 29 16 -17 -26 -66 -33 N/A LAND (KM) 132 131 122 117 112 143 197 255 282 252 228 184 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.8 31.7 32.6 33.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.8 79.8 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.3 79.0 78.6 78.0 77.3 76.2 75.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 4. 1. 0. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 28. 32. 35. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 16. 14. 12. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 16. 13. 11. 8. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/10/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/10/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY