* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ANDREA AL012007 05/11/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 42 45 46 43 40 37 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 39 42 45 46 43 40 37 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 47 49 47 42 39 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 10 11 23 15 22 27 36 46 30 19 N/A SHEAR DIR 290 306 278 243 252 243 242 239 262 273 284 292 N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.2 23.8 22.9 22.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 99 100 100 99 99 100 99 97 95 90 87 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 84 84 84 84 84 85 84 83 82 79 76 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.2 -56.9 -57.0 -56.8 -57.3 -57.0 -57.1 -56.5 -57.8 -59.1 -59.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 9 7 8 6 4 0 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 33 33 36 47 55 52 36 24 23 29 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 22 25 12 17 4 34 67 54 -57 -140 -133 N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -9 -21 -7 -10 21 20 27 9 -40 -52 -78 N/A LAND (KM) 121 117 116 131 147 196 265 335 337 307 272 283 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.8 30.4 31.0 31.8 32.8 33.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.8 79.7 79.5 79.4 79.2 78.8 78.3 77.7 76.8 76.0 74.8 73.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 27. 31. 34. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 13. 11. 8. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 13. 10. 7. 3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/11/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/11/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY