* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ANDREA AL012007 05/11/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 53 60 63 63 64 63 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 53 60 63 63 64 63 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 43 50 56 59 59 56 51 50 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 14 10 5 2 11 20 35 41 23 12 36 SHEAR DIR 283 255 266 302 280 279 263 240 255 226 168 219 215 SST (C) 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.6 23.6 21.5 19.7 19.6 19.3 18.1 16.8 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 100 102 102 101 101 96 87 82 83 82 76 74 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 87 88 88 89 86 80 77 79 78 71 69 74 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -57.0 -56.8 -57.7 -58.0 -58.6 -58.6 -57.9 -56.5 -54.9 -54.6 -53.6 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 7 4 2 1 2 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 34 36 37 39 45 52 54 48 49 52 56 41 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 12 10 11 15 45 78 134 160 196 236 201 108 200 MB DIV -8 -1 -9 12 19 1 47 17 36 43 72 82 55 LAND (KM) 90 138 187 254 324 354 426 751 1128 1305 922 806 1130 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.6 30.1 31.4 32.5 33.5 33.7 34.3 38.6 39.8 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.3 78.8 78.3 77.8 75.8 72.8 68.1 62.1 55.5 50.6 50.0 42.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 7 9 12 17 23 26 26 17 17 30 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 12. 9. 9. 9. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 30. 29. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 23. 30. 33. 33. 35. 34. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 23. 30. 33. 33. 34. 33. 28. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/11/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/11/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY