* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ANDREA AL012007 05/11/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 46 50 53 52 47 40 31 21 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 46 50 53 52 47 40 31 21 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 37 43 48 51 50 45 39 31 25 SHEAR (KTS) 7 13 13 6 8 17 29 46 55 63 62 57 48 SHEAR DIR 247 257 277 258 269 274 253 241 223 235 256 274 263 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.6 22.8 20.3 19.6 19.2 18.9 23.7 23.5 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 102 102 102 92 84 83 83 82 105 93 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 88 88 89 89 83 78 78 80 78 106 82 79 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.9 -57.3 -58.1 -57.9 -57.9 -58.3 -56.5 -55.1 -54.9 -57.4 -57.1 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 6 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 36 35 38 42 47 55 53 43 46 51 38 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 24 21 32 41 60 109 131 99 -69 -81 -49 200 MB DIV 13 -24 26 24 22 18 14 3 20 7 36 24 43 LAND (KM) 107 168 228 294 364 433 554 962 1158 1301 829 913 798 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.4 29.9 31.1 32.3 33.5 34.3 35.1 27.2 28.0 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 78.9 78.3 77.8 77.2 74.9 71.2 65.7 59.2 51.0 69.9 70.4 70.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 9 14 20 26 31 29 46 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 4. -2. -9. -16. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 31. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 23. 22. 18. 12. 3. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 22. 17. 10. 1. -9. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/11/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/11/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY