* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ANDREA AL012007 05/12/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 39 46 48 46 43 35 25 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 39 46 48 46 43 35 25 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 39 38 34 30 25 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 11 15 16 36 66 70 58 69 64 61 44 SHEAR DIR 250 223 202 230 246 232 247 222 186 286 297 293 263 SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.5 23.5 22.5 19.6 19.4 18.3 17.7 24.9 24.8 23.6 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 102 96 91 82 83 81 79 113 101 96 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 90 90 86 83 77 79 78 76 117 88 86 78 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.8 -57.3 -57.4 -57.5 -57.0 -54.9 -53.3 -53.2 -56.8 -57.6 -56.5 -58.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 42 42 48 48 49 40 36 35 42 34 36 42 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 9 8 10 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 26 59 62 60 69 127 144 132 -113 -116 -67 -15 200 MB DIV 25 16 39 60 18 14 12 7 60 -33 4 80 71 LAND (KM) 202 298 390 401 395 572 921 1047 900 893 909 1068 1140 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.6 30.2 31.0 31.7 33.4 35.1 36.5 39.2 26.2 26.4 28.0 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 77.8 77.0 75.7 74.4 70.2 64.0 56.4 48.9 63.5 63.7 64.4 65.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 13 17 23 29 32 30 45 5 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. 0. 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 10. 5. -1. -10. -18. -26. -32. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 20. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 21. 23. 21. 18. 11. 1. -8. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 14. 21. 23. 21. 18. 10. 0. -9. -17. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/12/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/12/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY