* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* ANDREA AL012007 05/12/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 49 46 42 35 28 20 DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 49 46 42 35 28 20 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 35 33 29 26 23 20 16
SHEAR (KTS) 5 13 19 15 24 44 72 62 52 65 50 64 52
SHEAR DIR 232 177 215 221 229 245 231 209 194 249 255 271 284
SST (C) 24.8 24.6 23.9 22.7 21.8 19.7 19.2 18.5 10.7 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.2
POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 98 92 89 83 83 81 70 107 94 96 97
ADJ. POT. INT. 88 90 88 83 82 79 79 78 68 109 81 84 84
200 MB T (C) -57.3 -56.8 -56.5 -56.9 -56.9 -56.6 -54.6 -53.6 -53.5 -57.1 -57.6 -58.5 -58.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 3 3 4 4
700-500 MB RH 45 50 50 51 50 38 35 32 38 34 37 39 37
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 7 8 10 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 27 64 67 55 49 63 119 144 82 -58 -65 -62 -22
200 MB DIV 13 27 59 28 18 9 20 13 33 21 -13 30 18
LAND (KM) 253 360 418 435 438 737 957 1023 577 1632 1620 1568 1493
LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.9 30.4 31.2 31.9 33.4 35.4 37.5 42.4 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.0
LONG(DEG W) 78.2 77.3 76.3 74.8 73.3 68.3 61.7 54.4 49.0 52.8 52.8 53.5 54.6
STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 13 15 19 26 30 31 27 40 2 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 9. 3. -2. -11. -17. -25. -34.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 12. 18. 24. 21. 18. 12. 5. -3. -11.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 24. 21. 17. 10. 3. -5. -14.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/12/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/12/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY