* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ANDREA AL012007 05/13/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 46 48 45 41 36 27 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 46 48 45 41 36 27 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 33 33 30 26 24 22 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 12 20 37 55 77 67 44 58 57 62 57 SHEAR DIR 229 234 214 219 232 249 223 204 197 271 270 291 284 SST (C) 24.5 23.4 22.5 21.3 20.0 19.3 18.3 17.2 14.8 24.1 24.2 24.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 101 95 91 87 83 83 81 76 75 107 95 96 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 85 83 81 79 79 77 72 72 109 82 84 82 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -57.2 -57.0 -57.0 -57.1 -56.5 -54.6 -53.3 -54.1 -58.1 -57.4 -57.7 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 50 53 50 45 43 38 37 45 34 35 38 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 7 8 10 10 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 69 85 92 90 125 137 131 71 -69 -53 -56 -46 200 MB DIV 25 65 45 28 31 38 15 34 19 35 0 -9 56 LAND (KM) 370 474 485 531 632 975 1012 831 750 1498 1491 1446 1436 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.6 32.4 34.4 36.6 39.5 41.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 77.0 75.7 74.4 72.3 70.1 64.2 57.2 50.3 47.1 54.8 54.8 55.5 56.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 16 20 23 29 31 23 32 39 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -1. 2. 6. 7. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 9. 3. -2. -9. -16. -24. -33. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 17. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 23. 20. 16. 12. 3. -6. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 15. 21. 23. 20. 16. 11. 2. -7. -19. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/13/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/13/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY