* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* ANDREA AL012007 05/13/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 42 46 41 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 42 46 41 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 17 42 50 64 70 76 76 43 35 45 50 53 24
SHEAR DIR 222 231 244 241 226 215 205 255 283 282 292 302 313
SST (C) 21.3 20.3 20.0 19.4 18.9 18.1 14.6 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.1 22.0
POT. INT. (KT) 88 85 84 83 82 81 74 107 92 93 92 91 86
ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 80 80 79 78 71 108 79 80 80 80 76
200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.3 -57.7 -57.0 -55.2 -53.9 -54.4 -57.2 -58.0 -58.4 -58.1 -57.1 -57.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 3 3 3 4 3 3
700-500 MB RH 56 52 48 48 44 55 58 33 34 29 31 35 48
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 12 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 72 79 94 144 176 147 129 -81 -86 -64 -93 -73 30
200 MB DIV 34 56 57 46 52 66 76 10 10 27 -10 4 59
LAND (KM) 571 723 922 1052 1020 889 772 1352 1395 1399 1381 1412 1510
LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.2 32.9 34.2 35.4 38.7 42.9 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.4 29.2 30.6
LONG(DEG W) 71.9 69.2 66.4 63.2 59.9 52.8 44.9 57.3 56.9 57.1 57.8 58.5 59.2
STM SPEED (KT) 22 24 27 30 31 35 29 45 1 3 4 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 20 CX,CY: 19/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 10. -2. -12. -20. -25. -32. -38.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 15. 4. -5. -12. -19. -29. -36.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 16. 3. -6. -14. -21. -31. -39.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL012007 ANDREA 05/13/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012007 ANDREA 05/13/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY