* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP902007 05/25/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 49 48 43 31 21 16 15
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 45 49 48 43 31 21 19 24
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 35 33 29 24 18 16 24
SHEAR (KTS) 6 1 2 2 5 16 12 22 33 46 54 42 22
SHEAR DIR 170 159 175 271 324 331 318 292 278 276 269 280 274
SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 27.9 27.0 26.1 25.1 23.5 22.2 26.0 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 152 150 142 132 123 114 98 86 127 115
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -55.2 -55.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 3 1 7
700-500 MB RH 66 67 69 66 61 61 49 46 33 29 26 31 39
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR 33 28 27 25 23 16 23 6 -40 -30 -20 44 49
200 MB DIV 8 -2 -10 -10 4 5 3 -14 -35 -49 -51 -47 -21
LAND (KM) 859 867 872 863 858 837 839 749 562 323 2 -104 -556
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.4 18.2 20.3 23.0 26.0 28.9
LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.6 108.8 109.3 109.7 110.6 111.5 111.9 112.0 111.4 110.1 107.6 104.3
STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 6 6 7 7 8 10 13 16 20 20
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 18. 21. 20. 18. 19. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 3. -2. -9. -15. -17.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 18. 15. 4. -6. -12. -12.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 24. 23. 18. 6. -4. -9. -10.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 05/25/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 51% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 05/25/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY