* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP902007 05/25/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 40 48 53 52 48 41 31 25 19
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 40 48 53 52 48 41 31 25 25
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 32 32 29 25 21 16 22
SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 0 0 4 7 12 16 20 26 39 47 43
SHEAR DIR 152 140 100 327 211 164 216 235 249 243 261 277 309
SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.6 26.6 25.8 24.5 22.5 25.4 25.3
POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 154 153 147 139 129 121 109 89 120 118
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -54.0 -55.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 5 4 3 2 3 1 4
700-500 MB RH 68 66 67 67 64 56 52 45 36 24 21 24 26
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 50 51 52 48 50 10 -26 -34 -38 18 16
200 MB DIV 45 50 59 66 79 85 52 54 43 0 -30 -55 -55
LAND (KM) 880 884 888 892 895 896 877 824 671 432 126 42 -307
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 13.2 14.2 15.6 17.1 19.2 21.8 25.0 27.6
LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.4 108.6 109.0 109.4 110.4 111.2 111.7 111.8 111.3 110.3 108.6 106.4
STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 16 17 16
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 23. 21. 21. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 0. -6. -12.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 22. 22. 20. 13. 4. -3. -8.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 15. 23. 28. 27. 23. 16. 6. 0. -6.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 05/25/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.9 Prob of RI= 73% is 5.6 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 05/25/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED