* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902007 05/26/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 43 39 30 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 43 39 30 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 9 4 2 20 23 29 36 38 55 60 66 SHEAR DIR 181 185 154 203 239 216 247 243 257 276 290 291 294 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 26.7 25.9 24.9 23.5 24.2 25.7 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 142 139 130 121 112 98 106 122 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 3 3 2 1 4 3 10 7 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 57 57 49 47 38 30 31 30 35 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 61 63 57 53 30 -1 -22 -25 -18 12 11 -16 200 MB DIV 75 58 61 68 55 42 27 7 -21 -55 -65 -38 -56 LAND (KM) 879 871 865 853 846 830 709 505 273 135 -104 -393 -400 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.3 15.5 16.8 18.6 20.5 22.5 24.3 25.6 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.9 110.2 110.6 110.9 111.7 112.0 111.6 110.6 108.4 106.1 103.5 101.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 14 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMD INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 14. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -13. -21. -29. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 12. 9. 2. -6. -12. -17. -23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 18. 14. 5. -3. -10. -14. -20. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 05/26/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 05/26/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY