* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP902007 05/26/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 40 36 26 18 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 40 36 26 18 DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 4 4 10 9 18 28 35 43 58 60 58
SHEAR DIR 193 175 178 262 215 236 235 234 255 283 296 301 296
SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.6 25.8 24.5 23.3 25.0 25.8 26.0 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 141 137 128 121 108 96 114 122 124 123
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 1 3 2 6 7 10
700-500 MB RH 67 62 64 60 59 55 48 36 27 28 24 42 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8
850 MB ENV VOR 63 70 61 59 48 36 5 15 -21 0 2 23 -25
200 MB DIV 90 72 84 71 57 60 45 0 -43 -52 -71 -33 -38
LAND (KM) 895 882 871 861 855 818 668 426 190 90 -193 -430 -348
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.7 17.1 19.2 21.2 23.2 24.9 26.0 26.8
LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.2 110.4 110.8 111.1 111.7 111.7 111.1 109.8 107.6 105.5 103.4 100.9
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 9 11 13 14 12 11 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 0. -6. -14. -22. -30.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 9. 0. -8. -16. -21. -27.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 15. 11. 1. -7. -15. -19. -24.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP902007 INVEST 05/26/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902007 INVEST 05/26/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY