* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ONE EP012007 05/27/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 49 54 57 56 49 44 39 38 32
V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 44 49 54 57 56 49 44 39 38 32
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 39 39 38 34 30 27 24 22
SHEAR (KTS) 10 3 4 9 8 1 9 12 15 14 6 14 21
SHEAR DIR 163 140 74 147 139 41 184 224 225 254 218 161 175
SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.0 25.6 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.5
POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 141 138 131 122 118 111 107 106 107 104
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 2
700-500 MB RH 66 64 61 59 58 53 50 45 35 27 22 23 25
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9
850 MB ENV VOR 80 75 72 65 51 50 19 -5 -31 -29 -9 55 59
200 MB DIV 85 86 86 57 76 69 66 49 19 7 -12 8 23
LAND (KM) 961 981 1001 1012 1026 1016 913 820 688 603 585 579 527
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.3 15.6 16.6 17.9 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.0
LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.0 111.4 111.9 112.4 113.3 114.0 114.1 113.9 113.4 113.1 113.0 112.9
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 2 1 2 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 19. 15. 11. 7. 5. -1.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 19. 24. 27. 26. 19. 14. 9. 8. 2.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ONE 05/27/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
Scaled RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 58% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.7 Prob of RI= 65% is 5.0 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ONE 05/27/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY