* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ONE EP012007 05/27/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 53 58 59 58 56 54 53 48
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 53 58 59 58 56 54 53 48
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 39 40 40 40 40 39 37 33
SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 11 15 14 14 14 15 9 16 22 30 26
SHEAR DIR 165 116 142 114 126 172 151 141 153 109 124 116 130
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 26.9 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 143 142 141 138 137 137 137 137 132 123
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -51.8 -51.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 59 58 53 55 54 52 49 45 34 27
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 79 72 77 79 96 58 90 77 62 52 44 32 40
200 MB DIV 90 90 77 89 87 101 99 58 63 39 52 12 29
LAND (KM) 972 1013 1054 1101 1149 1223 1252 1278 1314 1371 1460 1540 1612
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.4
LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.6 113.1 113.9 114.8 115.6 116.3 117.3 118.7 120.2 121.8
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 6 7 7 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 22. 24. 24. 24. 22. 20. 16.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 14. 18. 23. 28. 29. 28. 26. 24. 23. 18.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ONE 05/27/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ONE 05/27/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY