* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ONE EP012007 05/27/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 44 46 46 45 45 46 44 43
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 44 46 46 45 45 46 44 43
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 27
SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 15 16 13 15 15 16 10 12 15 15 4
SHEAR DIR 158 148 142 140 149 153 134 138 123 116 107 117 59
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 139 139 138 136 135 137 135 134 129
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.5 -52.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 62 57 59 59 55 53 59 53 50 45 40 39 32
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 9 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 63 73 77 82 75 64 65 72 27 -13 -1 11 23
200 MB DIV 95 83 105 113 109 91 76 78 19 33 41 8 11
LAND (KM) 963 993 1023 1055 1087 1152 1190 1239 1275 1341 1400 1490 1585
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.0 12.9 13.0 12.9 13.0 12.9 13.0
LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.5 111.8 112.3 112.7 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.1 117.1 118.2 119.4 120.8
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 15. 13. 12.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 16. 15. 15. 16. 14. 13.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ONE 05/27/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ONE 05/27/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY