* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ONE EP012007 05/27/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 35 35 34 32 33 33 33 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 35 35 34 32 33 33 33 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 15 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 12 14 13 10 22 12 17 13 24 7 13 SHEAR DIR 158 156 163 162 175 139 123 121 103 118 116 119 69 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 140 139 138 136 136 136 136 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 59 60 56 57 53 48 42 37 33 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 8 7 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 76 74 59 51 47 54 56 49 29 11 8 6 200 MB DIV 74 103 100 103 101 91 50 66 55 60 28 27 6 LAND (KM) 947 969 992 1020 1048 1139 1194 1229 1270 1340 1454 1543 1604 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.7 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.4 111.7 112.1 112.4 113.4 114.4 115.2 116.2 117.4 119.0 119.9 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 7 6 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 3. 4. 10. 10. 9. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ONE 05/27/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ONE 05/27/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY