* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ONE EP012007 05/28/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 39 40 39 39 39 39 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 39 40 39 39 39 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 11 14 12 15 15 12 21 24 15 13 29 SHEAR DIR 149 155 158 170 154 137 135 137 129 146 147 135 133 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 140 138 136 134 133 133 134 135 135 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -51.6 -52.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 60 64 59 63 60 55 52 50 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 72 56 46 43 35 46 44 43 35 35 37 46 200 MB DIV 100 99 114 109 96 55 45 82 51 67 93 14 75 LAND (KM) 985 1000 1016 1040 1064 1128 1155 1172 1185 1219 1275 1321 1338 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.7 111.9 112.3 112.6 113.5 114.2 114.6 114.9 115.4 116.1 116.6 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 14. 16. 16. 14. 13. 13. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 14. 13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ONE 05/28/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ONE 05/28/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY