* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ONE EP012007 05/28/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 42 44 44 45 43 43 43 42
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 42 44 44 45 43 43 43 42
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 35 36 37 38 38 37 36 34 33 32
SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 9 12 11 19 14 24 13 22 13 14 14
SHEAR DIR 156 173 166 150 142 114 112 113 123 118 139 127 132
SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 138 139 138 138 136 136 136 136 137
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 3
700-500 MB RH 59 58 54 56 57 58 59 58 55 52 50 49 51
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 7 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 73 64 53 46 43 36 43 39 36 25 23 27 37
200 MB DIV 100 106 96 93 74 43 57 78 76 87 62 23 70
LAND (KM) 1031 1067 1103 1132 1161 1213 1237 1274 1298 1319 1329 1351 1386
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6
LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.5 112.8 113.2 113.5 114.1 114.7 115.3 115.8 116.2 116.4 116.8 117.4
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 13. 13.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. 13. 13. 13. 12.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ONE 05/28/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ONE 05/28/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY