* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ONE EP012007 05/28/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 47 50 49 48 47 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 47 50 49 48 47 47 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 37 38 39 38 37 35 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 11 12 11 12 13 23 21 23 12 13 11 SHEAR DIR 129 146 138 136 134 119 79 116 125 136 151 134 127 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 139 139 139 139 139 139 138 138 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.6 -53.4 -52.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 56 56 58 53 54 52 48 49 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 51 44 46 34 41 29 40 26 8 -12 -35 -36 200 MB DIV 97 98 112 76 46 37 57 66 70 57 11 0 -26 LAND (KM) 1088 1125 1162 1183 1204 1240 1288 1335 1378 1429 1480 1526 1574 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.2 113.6 114.0 114.4 115.0 115.8 116.5 117.1 117.8 118.6 119.3 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 20. 19. 18. 17. 17. 16. 16. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ONE 05/28/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ONE 05/28/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY