* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ONE EP012007 05/28/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 38 40 42 41 42 40 40 41 40 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 38 40 42 41 42 40 40 41 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 27 25 24 22 SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 10 12 15 14 23 23 27 20 16 18 20 SHEAR DIR 163 148 148 137 122 118 99 100 126 141 124 119 120 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 140 142 141 141 140 141 140 137 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 58 59 60 62 60 56 53 51 44 43 39 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 49 51 43 37 39 29 27 9 10 7 -1 -21 200 MB DIV 93 109 81 66 44 44 43 71 105 91 10 33 2 LAND (KM) 1126 1167 1206 1215 1225 1289 1353 1395 1418 1460 1537 1585 1613 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.5 113.9 114.2 114.4 115.4 116.3 116.9 117.3 118.0 119.2 119.9 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 5 3 2 3 4 5 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ONE 05/28/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ONE 05/28/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY