* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 05/28/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 35 43 52 64 75 80 85 83 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 35 43 52 64 75 80 54 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 40 45 49 39 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 9 4 7 10 10 10 13 15 11 4 16 18 32 SHEAR DIR 285 305 245 241 252 257 270 296 316 41 230 266 254 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.1 27.9 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 167 165 163 162 161 160 155 154 143 133 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 74 73 72 70 65 60 59 52 49 37 33 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 8 13 15 18 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -10 -21 -18 -12 17 36 69 77 117 68 47 -39 200 MB DIV 21 19 20 34 49 38 37 56 64 40 -8 -24 -10 LAND (KM) 324 270 217 166 114 57 51 64 67 86 -105 -248 -261 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.1 19.0 21.2 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.3 97.3 97.5 97.7 98.4 99.4 100.4 101.5 102.1 102.6 102.8 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 6 10 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 20. 27. 34. 37. 38. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 6. 14. 17. 21. 22. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 25. 38. 50. 55. 58. 56. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 10. 18. 27. 39. 50. 55. 60. 58. 50. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 05/28/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 05/28/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED