* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ALVIN EP012007 05/29/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 45 46 49 48 47 44 43 42 41 40
V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 45 46 49 48 47 44 43 42 41 40
V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 40 39 36 33 30 28 26 24
SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 13 18 20 17 29 23 26 16 17 18 18
SHEAR DIR 143 135 121 105 113 117 112 127 134 155 144 138 143
SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 143 143 142 140 139 139 138 137 135 133
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -52.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 58 59 56 54 53 51 49 43 42 37
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 36 38 40 27 26 18 -1 -10 -13 -14 -21
200 MB DIV 112 80 53 52 65 45 56 82 78 30 -1 35 13
LAND (KM) 1174 1219 1245 1276 1309 1359 1408 1450 1495 1542 1605 1656 1705
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.3
LONG(DEG W) 113.4 113.9 114.4 114.9 115.4 116.4 117.3 118.0 118.7 119.4 120.3 121.0 121.7
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 10. 11. 14. 13. 12. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/29/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/29/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY