* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 05/29/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 45 57 68 71 71 70 67 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 45 57 68 71 53 36 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 44 50 46 33 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 3 5 7 3 9 12 18 5 14 16 22 34 SHEAR DIR 338 332 258 255 217 229 290 288 273 244 222 226 227 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.6 28.9 27.9 27.1 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 166 164 163 164 160 152 142 134 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 11 9 10 7 9 6 8 3 6 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 70 65 63 59 52 46 36 33 29 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 3 5 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -19 -29 -32 -13 14 43 53 76 66 23 17 3 200 MB DIV 20 13 16 40 36 0 44 17 -5 -48 -19 -10 13 LAND (KM) 275 235 195 144 94 89 93 94 75 -55 -132 -62 -96 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.7 20.1 21.6 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 97.7 97.9 98.1 98.3 98.9 99.9 101.3 102.2 103.0 103.8 104.7 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 4 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 28. 34. 37. 37. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 3. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 17. 29. 41. 45. 45. 44. 40. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 7. 10. 20. 32. 43. 46. 46. 45. 42. 37. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 05/29/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 05/29/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY