* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ALVIN EP012007 05/29/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 42 42 43 43 42 41 41 40 40 39
V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 42 42 43 43 42 41 41 40 40 39
V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 39 37 34 32 30 29 28 26
SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 15 25 20 24 24 20 15 15 14 13 21
SHEAR DIR 129 119 91 102 103 109 118 131 140 138 145 122 142
SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 143 143 143 142 140 139 139 138 136 135
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 59 57 61 58 58 56 55 52 47 47 42 39 35
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 45 34 32 28 28 12 15 -2 -14 -21 -3 -15 -19
200 MB DIV 93 56 50 35 26 29 71 70 62 38 43 30 20
LAND (KM) 1214 1252 1282 1307 1333 1399 1472 1515 1548 1588 1644 1688 1733
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.3 114.8 115.3 115.7 116.8 117.9 118.6 119.1 119.7 120.5 121.1 121.7
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/29/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/29/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY