* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP912007 05/29/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 44 54 62 75 76 79 73 67
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 44 54 62 75 46 33 29 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 44 50 36 29 28 27
SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 4 2 4 11 12 12 5 12 16 30 36
SHEAR DIR 342 266 244 171 193 261 293 302 354 247 255 245 263
SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.0 27.8 26.8 26.5 26.3
POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 163 162 161 163 162 159 154 142 132 128 125
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.1
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 5 7 5
700-500 MB RH 70 72 70 65 65 58 56 51 42 32 29 22 26
GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 4 6 8 14 14 16 15 16
850 MB ENV VOR -24 -28 -28 -17 7 28 63 69 102 28 34 -18 11
200 MB DIV 18 9 33 35 36 31 32 12 1 -46 -19 9 -39
LAND (KM) 231 183 135 99 63 66 74 66 25 -139 -209 -219 -297
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.5 19.3 21.4 23.2 24.6
LONG(DEG W) 97.5 97.6 97.6 97.8 97.9 98.6 99.7 100.9 101.7 102.5 103.2 103.7 103.8
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 5 6 6 8 11 10 8 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 19. 27. 33. 36. 36. 36. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 4. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 15. 20. 17. 16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 18. 29. 38. 51. 51. 53. 47. 41.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 9. 19. 29. 37. 50. 51. 54. 48. 42.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 05/29/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 05/29/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED