* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ALVIN EP012007 05/29/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 45 46 44 44 42 43 43 43
V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 45 46 44 44 42 43 43 43
V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 34 34 32 31 29 28 28 28 28
SHEAR (KTS) 11 14 20 17 15 19 16 17 8 9 7 14 15
SHEAR DIR 132 100 103 104 106 98 104 126 118 130 123 129 165
SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 142 142 140 140 139 138 137 136 133 132
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 56 60 59 56 56 57 52 51 51 49 46 44 37
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9
850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 24 24 16 9 2 -10 -20 -2 18 33 29
200 MB DIV 58 59 53 22 26 45 69 61 25 9 18 0 6
LAND (KM) 1220 1247 1276 1309 1343 1376 1432 1476 1519 1568 1634 1664 1684
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.4
LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.5 114.9 115.5 116.1 116.9 117.7 118.4 119.2 119.9 120.7 121.1 121.5
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 9. 7. 8. 6. 8. 7. 7.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 5. 10. 11. 9. 9. 7. 8. 8. 8.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/29/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/29/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY