* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912007 05/29/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 56 66 75 71 63 61 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 56 66 42 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 42 32 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 3 6 9 12 11 9 10 18 29 48 59 SHEAR DIR 255 239 172 183 214 275 279 325 283 264 255 249 265 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.3 28.1 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 162 162 161 163 162 157 145 134 129 126 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 11 10 9 11 8 10 7 9 4 10 6 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 63 55 51 41 35 31 21 23 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 9 15 13 9 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -31 -21 4 18 41 68 69 46 10 37 6 7 200 MB DIV 9 29 38 28 20 28 26 -14 -33 -50 -24 -12 12 LAND (KM) 178 142 105 83 63 78 67 15 -102 -290 -297 -442 -338 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.2 17.2 18.9 21.1 23.2 25.1 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 97.6 97.7 97.8 98.1 98.3 99.1 100.0 101.1 101.8 102.4 102.9 102.4 100.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 5 6 8 10 11 10 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 19. 27. 32. 34. 35. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. -3. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 16. 13. 9. 12. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 26. 37. 48. 44. 36. 34. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 31. 41. 50. 46. 38. 36. 23. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP912007 INVEST 05/29/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912007 INVEST 05/29/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY