* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL862007 05/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 51 48 45 42 38 35 33 32 28 24 V (KT) LAND 65 61 56 51 42 32 28 27 27 28 28 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 58 54 51 33 29 27 27 28 28 31 33 SHEAR (KTS) 42 38 30 30 23 8 15 25 14 12 17 33 42 SHEAR DIR 268 267 269 258 259 295 238 253 281 262 243 271 256 SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.3 24.0 21.4 18.6 15.8 14.4 14.6 15.2 18.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 106 104 101 99 97 84 75 70 68 68 70 75 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 88 86 85 75 69 66 65 65 67 70 79 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.3 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 -57.6 -58.2 -58.1 -57.8 -57.5 -57.3 -56.7 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 6 3 6 2 5 2 5 2 3 700-500 MB RH 55 53 50 54 58 53 50 46 48 44 47 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -50 -79 -103 -87 -82 -76 -129 -99 -101 -102 -102 -37 200 MB DIV 29 38 20 13 39 32 25 -17 21 -5 20 39 74 LAND (KM) 154 126 111 36 -11 -222 -422 -632 -665 -545 -279 65 367 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.8 29.4 30.1 30.8 32.7 34.5 36.3 37.6 38.1 37.9 36.9 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.1 87.9 88.0 88.0 88.1 87.8 86.8 84.6 82.0 78.9 75.2 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 10 11 11 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -19. -24. -27. -30. -32. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -5. -8. -8. -7. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -25. -28. -30. -31. -35. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -14. -17. -20. -22. -27. -30. -32. -33. -37. -41. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL862007 TEST 05/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL862007 TEST 05/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY