* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 05/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 41 44 47 46 46 42 42 41 38 39 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 41 44 47 46 46 42 42 41 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 34 33 32 31 29 28 27 27 26 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 15 12 10 15 13 13 15 13 13 16 6 SHEAR DIR 137 127 128 127 96 100 102 117 104 111 99 131 180 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 142 142 141 139 138 138 136 135 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 60 58 57 54 54 52 51 47 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 9 9 7 7 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 15 11 11 2 1 -2 -20 -29 -25 3 25 31 51 200 MB DIV 54 54 34 40 41 79 55 54 24 36 21 23 -9 LAND (KM) 1207 1234 1256 1279 1304 1365 1408 1458 1504 1538 1560 1603 1648 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.1 114.4 115.0 115.5 116.7 117.6 118.4 119.1 119.6 119.9 120.5 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. 1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 10. 7. 7. 5. 2. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 11. 7. 7. 6. 3. 4. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY