* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TWO EP022007 05/29/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 55 66 78 81 80 78 70 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 55 66 78 81 80 60 53 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 47 55 65 73 76 58 55 48 SHEAR (KTS) 4 1 4 6 1 3 4 6 3 2 15 32 30 SHEAR DIR 244 162 182 209 292 345 330 40 178 162 208 222 222 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.3 29.7 28.6 27.4 26.4 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 165 167 169 170 167 161 150 138 127 124 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 3 6 700-500 MB RH 69 65 66 63 62 58 53 47 34 35 27 25 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 11 11 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -16 3 11 15 54 64 89 45 50 10 57 34 200 MB DIV 34 38 33 11 35 34 53 32 11 -9 8 2 22 LAND (KM) 191 191 191 198 207 250 267 218 118 14 5 59 37 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.7 15.7 17.1 18.9 20.8 22.3 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 97.7 97.7 98.1 98.5 99.8 101.1 102.2 103.4 104.4 105.5 106.3 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 2 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 9 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 20. 27. 33. 35. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 9. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 10. 9. 10. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 34. 46. 50. 50. 47. 39. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 36. 48. 51. 50. 48. 40. 34. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 TWO 05/29/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 TWO 05/29/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED