* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 05/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 42 43 42 40 39 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 42 43 42 40 39 38 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 34 33 32 30 29 27 26 25 24 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 5 7 14 14 14 13 16 12 19 14 7 SHEAR DIR 110 112 127 110 118 126 112 112 122 116 116 139 144 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 140 140 139 138 137 137 136 135 134 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 60 55 58 56 57 55 57 55 51 51 47 42 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 10 6 -2 -6 -24 -40 -51 -36 -24 -25 3 19 200 MB DIV 38 21 42 50 58 56 56 33 13 22 -1 -8 -25 LAND (KM) 1203 1226 1250 1273 1299 1359 1402 1453 1509 1574 1633 1709 1761 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.6 115.0 115.6 116.2 117.1 117.8 118.6 119.3 120.1 120.8 121.6 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 5 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/30/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY