* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TWO EP022007 05/30/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 54 64 70 73 74 73 73 72 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 45 54 64 70 73 74 73 73 72 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 45 51 59 66 73 77 78 77 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 9 11 11 3 6 10 12 18 22 22 22 SHEAR DIR 53 101 95 83 103 170 177 180 142 136 136 136 132 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 167 167 165 167 167 166 167 163 164 164 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -51.2 -52.3 -51.4 -52.3 -51.4 -52.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 7 9 7 9 7 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 65 62 66 66 66 65 56 54 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 5 12 30 59 62 60 58 48 78 74 76 200 MB DIV 29 40 23 40 40 81 58 79 91 106 89 88 86 LAND (KM) 187 207 228 260 293 315 293 284 253 202 107 91 123 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.2 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.1 15.0 15.4 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 97.4 97.3 97.3 97.3 97.3 97.3 97.4 97.5 97.7 97.9 98.7 99.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 2 0 1 1 2 4 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 20. 27. 34. 38. 40. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 29. 36. 41. 42. 42. 41. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 15. 24. 34. 40. 43. 44. 43. 43. 42. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 TWO 05/30/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 TWO 05/30/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY