* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 05/30/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 31 28 26 26 26 26 26 28 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 31 28 26 26 26 26 26 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 25 24 22 21 20 20 19 18 18 SHEAR (KTS) 15 6 6 15 19 12 13 12 13 14 15 13 11 SHEAR DIR 115 117 103 116 121 137 120 119 127 129 147 164 188 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 138 137 136 135 135 134 134 133 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 54 54 55 53 49 48 46 48 45 40 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 9 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 -10 -10 -18 -38 -53 -55 -36 -47 -28 -19 -12 200 MB DIV 22 41 54 48 16 35 17 11 4 -3 0 -18 -19 LAND (KM) 1204 1218 1234 1249 1266 1325 1382 1445 1497 1549 1609 1690 1767 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.4 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.9 115.3 115.8 116.3 117.3 118.2 119.0 119.5 120.1 120.8 121.6 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 2 3 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/30/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/30/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY