* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TWO EP022007 05/30/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 41 55 67 71 79 82 79 71 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 41 55 67 71 79 82 79 71 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 37 42 47 53 58 63 64 64 SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 8 12 8 7 4 6 11 13 26 19 15 SHEAR DIR 59 82 86 99 135 133 166 138 98 101 115 115 135 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 165 166 166 165 165 165 165 164 162 161 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 63 64 70 72 68 63 61 56 53 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 4 5 5 8 11 9 11 11 10 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 4 10 17 37 58 54 47 35 27 44 51 54 69 200 MB DIV 55 21 31 46 65 85 65 111 88 122 107 105 76 LAND (KM) 186 206 226 247 268 295 268 245 215 169 107 76 67 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.5 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.2 97.1 96.8 96.5 96.4 96.6 97.1 97.9 98.6 99.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 4 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 20. 27. 33. 37. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 11. 13. 14. 12. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 24. 37. 41. 49. 51. 48. 40. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 8. 11. 25. 37. 41. 49. 52. 49. 41. 38. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 TWO 05/30/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 TWO 05/30/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY