* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL872007 05/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 99 76 53 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 99 76 53 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 103 90 77 66 39 30 28 27 27 28 25 22 SHEAR (KTS) 51 60 62 60 59 57 48 45 44 63 62 56 43 SHEAR DIR 262 249 246 245 243 229 233 234 236 233 237 242 254 SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.4 23.9 21.8 19.3 18.2 19.1 20.5 22.6 21.2 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 106 100 97 86 77 74 77 82 91 85 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 93 89 86 77 70 68 71 74 81 77 75 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 -56.7 -56.1 -56.4 -55.3 -56.0 -55.2 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 3 6 2 5 2 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 58 57 61 58 60 56 51 53 56 57 57 58 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -48 -61 -84 -76 -63 -78 -83 -75 -21 23 42 19 200 MB DIV 33 62 63 36 42 92 28 51 41 70 88 78 77 LAND (KM) 323 275 184 84 24 -207 -365 -337 -233 -37 237 553 768 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.3 28.1 29.1 30.0 32.2 33.9 35.2 35.7 35.6 35.3 35.3 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.9 85.8 85.4 84.2 82.2 79.8 76.6 73.3 69.8 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 11 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -14. -20. -33. -47. -60. -70. -78. -80. -82. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR -11. -28. -45. -57. -73. -73. -64. -55. -49. -47. -44. -40. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -15. -37. -59. -77.-104.-118.-123.-127.-129.-131.-131.-130. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -16. -39. -62. -81.-108.-122.-125.-128.-129.-131.-131.-133. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL872007 TEST 05/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -21.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL872007 TEST 05/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY