* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST CP852007 05/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 27 24 22 23 24 25 29 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 28 27 24 22 23 24 25 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 28 27 25 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 14 11 16 15 12 8 18 12 10 6 2 SHEAR DIR 280 299 296 280 250 262 283 338 33 70 101 109 290 SST (C) 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 105 105 104 103 102 101 99 98 96 94 91 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.7 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 32 28 27 25 25 24 27 27 24 22 23 24 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 20 23 17 6 -10 -30 -62 -67 -77 -67 -68 200 MB DIV -3 -37 -43 -36 -25 -6 -12 -23 -6 -24 -19 -3 -24 LAND (KM) 1090 1042 995 931 869 741 676 646 691 775 869 957 1050 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.6 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 145.4 145.9 146.4 146.9 147.3 148.2 148.6 148.7 148.2 147.4 146.5 145.7 144.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 984 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -13. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 11. 10. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 2. 4. 3. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -12. -11. -10. -6. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP852007 TEST 05/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP852007 TEST 05/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY