* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ALVIN EP012007 05/30/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 21 20 21 21 21 25
V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 21 20 21 21 21 25
V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 25 23 22 21 21 20 20 19 19
SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 13 13 11 10 7 12 10 17 15 15 13
SHEAR DIR 135 134 117 135 151 151 126 143 138 140 161 179 202
SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5
POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 134 133 135 133 132 134 136 137 137 138
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 50 52 48 45 41 44 42 41 37 36
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR -7 -16 -19 -24 -33 -51 -54 -28 -22 -23 -12 -6 -3
200 MB DIV 27 54 53 14 4 4 -8 -1 -3 -10 -14 -40 -37
LAND (KM) 1167 1176 1185 1194 1205 1276 1338 1394 1432 1483 1566 1673 1810
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.1 11.5
LONG(DEG W) 114.5 114.8 115.1 115.4 115.7 116.8 117.8 118.5 118.8 119.3 120.1 121.0 122.2
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 2 3 5 6 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -8. -7. -9. -8. -5.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -5.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/30/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/30/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY