* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TWO EP022007 05/30/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 48 61 70 80 82 79 76 75 71 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 48 61 70 80 82 79 76 75 71 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 60 66 71 74 76 77 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 12 13 12 5 7 13 15 13 14 12 17 SHEAR DIR 71 80 105 135 137 125 130 118 119 142 115 137 147 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 165 166 165 164 165 164 163 162 162 161 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -51.8 -52.4 -51.2 -52.5 -51.3 -52.4 -51.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 7 8 7 9 7 9 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 65 68 68 74 69 68 63 63 52 53 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 5 5 6 9 9 11 12 9 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 44 61 60 52 49 45 40 50 48 64 68 200 MB DIV 14 32 39 33 54 75 104 113 103 112 68 67 75 LAND (KM) 186 193 200 226 251 292 270 248 215 165 98 37 28 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.5 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.8 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 97.4 97.2 97.0 96.9 96.8 96.6 96.6 96.6 96.6 96.9 97.4 98.4 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 4 5 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 9. 13. 13. 9. 6. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 26. 35. 45. 48. 45. 41. 40. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 26. 35. 45. 47. 44. 41. 40. 36. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 TWO 05/30/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 TWO 05/30/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY