* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* BARBARA EP022007 05/30/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 55 61 72 80 83 84 81 81 77 75
V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 55 61 72 80 83 84 81 81 77 75
V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 50 52 56 60 63 67 70 73 74 75
SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 16 15 12 9 10 13 15 16 13 19 18
SHEAR DIR 64 85 111 125 107 103 111 117 98 111 129 114 121
SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 167 166 165 166 166 167 166 166 165 163
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9
700-500 MB RH 62 67 68 72 76 76 72 70 64 61 56 52 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 10 9 9 9 8 9 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR 4 21 35 46 49 36 42 28 35 49 63 83 79
200 MB DIV 49 60 45 63 78 72 119 119 116 105 126 92 96
LAND (KM) 269 290 310 342 373 394 368 345 300 220 129 103 114
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.2 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.8 14.8 15.5 16.0
LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.1 97.0 97.0 96.9 96.8 96.5 96.4 96.4 96.9 97.9 99.2 100.6
STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 6 7 7 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 8. 9. 7. 9. 5. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 28. 35. 39. 42. 39. 40. 35. 33.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 21. 32. 40. 44. 44. 41. 41. 37. 35.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 05/30/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 54% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 05/30/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED