* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 05/31/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 32 31 30 29 32 31 31 34 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 32 31 30 29 32 31 31 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 25 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 10 6 6 6 10 11 14 14 15 15 13 SHEAR DIR 120 131 142 131 126 131 132 131 143 166 171 187 178 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 136 138 138 138 139 139 140 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 51 49 53 53 51 49 51 49 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -27 -32 -41 -47 -54 -48 -47 -40 -23 -10 -3 -4 200 MB DIV 36 34 31 44 24 -8 -18 -24 -29 -19 13 9 -13 LAND (KM) 1200 1219 1239 1264 1289 1371 1455 1521 1581 1657 1756 1871 1987 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.1 10.5 9.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.4 115.8 116.3 116.7 117.6 118.5 119.1 119.6 120.2 121.0 121.9 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 2. 1. 1. 4. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/31/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/31/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY