* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BARBARA EP022007 05/31/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 59 67 73 77 79 78 73 76 75 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 59 67 73 77 79 78 73 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 48 51 56 60 64 67 69 69 69 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 9 6 10 8 12 13 17 16 18 15 15 SHEAR DIR 82 116 138 115 89 140 119 135 114 133 122 131 134 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 166 165 167 167 165 164 163 160 157 158 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.7 -51.4 -52.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 7 7 6 8 7 9 7 10 7 10 700-500 MB RH 66 69 75 77 75 73 67 64 64 63 64 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 7 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 16 28 37 41 36 30 29 31 44 40 44 56 62 200 MB DIV 84 64 78 75 65 45 63 76 100 99 101 95 100 LAND (KM) 297 327 358 374 390 344 279 245 222 188 100 58 25 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.4 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.8 15.2 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 96.8 96.6 96.6 96.5 96.2 95.9 96.0 96.2 96.2 96.1 96.4 97.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 23. 29. 34. 37. 37. 33. 35. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 33. 37. 39. 38. 33. 36. 35. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 05/31/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 05/31/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY