* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ALVIN EP012007 05/31/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 34 33 33 34 35 35 34 38
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 34 33 33 34 35 35 34 38
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 28 28 29 29 28 28 27 27
SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 8 7 5 3 9 14 12 18 18 15 10
SHEAR DIR 123 143 138 129 158 112 118 130 147 151 167 172 166
SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0
POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 139 138 138 138 139 140 140 140 141
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 52 55 53 50 48 51 52 52 52 51 54 51 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 7 6 6 7 6 6 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -30 -37 -52 -54 -50 -41 -44 -29 -21 -6 0 9
200 MB DIV 38 39 43 28 19 -7 -39 -28 -42 -31 -20 -26 -12
LAND (KM) 1234 1251 1269 1296 1323 1386 1471 1528 1595 1687 1800 1893 1970
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.1
LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.7 116.0 116.4 116.8 117.7 118.6 119.2 119.8 120.5 121.5 122.2 122.8
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 4 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 4. 7.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 8.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/31/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/31/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY